Current outlook for the October Bank Holiday weekend - Cold with frost and some rain but some nice dry weather to
There are mixed signals on how the weather will turn out this weekend but models at least two of the main models this morning are on better agreement on what the weather may do this weekend.
The latest GFS and ECMWF model yesterday both had different looking outlooks
The Gfs model overnight showed a better looking outlook for the weekend with cold weather but a lot of dry weather. That area of rain on Friday stays to the south of Ireland and only clips southern and southeastern coastal areas. The current outlook from the GFS shows frost at night would be possible with some icy patches possible. As for the snow risk it has gone but some mountains or higher slopes could see some wintry showers especially across the north of Ireland but amounts small.
Meanwhile the ECMWF Model showed heavy rainfall moving over much of Ireland with the weather becoming warmer with temperatures warmer than average.
This morning there is now some agreement with the models with the ECMWF model showing much the same kind of outlook as the GFS shows with colder conditions over the weekend.
On Friday morning a area of low pressure passes of the south and southeast coast of Ireland with rainfall over south east of Ireland and although the GFS model shows this turning to snow on it model run this does not look likely to happen with any precipitation that does fall falling as rain, some mountainous areas could see a period of sleet. Around 15mm to 25mm of rain looks possible across southern and eastern counties with the risk of spot flooding.
Much of Connacht and Ulster look as the will remain mostly dry but cloudy on Friday with only a few showers some of these possibly wintry on higher ground and mountains in the northern half of Ireland with a mixture of mostly rain but some sleet to in the mix.
Rain will clear then on Friday evening into the Irish sea and it will turn rather cold with the risk of sharp frost in parts with temperatures between -1C to 3C coldest over inland areas of the west and midlands. There will also be the risk of some icy patches come Saturday morning.
Saturday the weather looks rather good over Ireland with good bright and sunny spells in many areas but some showers also look possible over the northwest and north of Ireland. Saturday day will be cool with temperatures between 6C to 9C.
Saturday night then will see clear spells again develop with the risk of the odd isolated shower across the northwest. Temperatures look set to range between -3C to +3C. Again there will be the risk of a sharp frost and icy patches.
Sunday also looks like a rather nice day to start and the weather for the Dublin marathon looks dry but cool. Later in the evening and over night another spell of rain may move in from the south of Ireland and push northwards across Ireland on Sunday night and Monday. Details on this are still unclear as of yet but should become more clear over the coming 24hrs to 36 hours.
The Ecmwf model has the area of rain missing us on Sunday night and Monday with good bright and sunny spells and the weather remaining cool over the start of next week with further frost before turning milder later in the week.
I will update again on the weekend forecast on Friday but for the latest on the weekend weather you can check the daily forecasts on the site.
Kenneth from the Donegal Weather Channel
Kenneth from the Donegal Weather Channel.
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