STORM BRENDAN UPDATE - Update from Met Eireann - warnings likely to be upgraded
Issued Sunday noon, 12th January, 2020 by Evelyn Cusack, Head of Forecasting & Eoin Sherlock, Head of Flood Forecasting.
Storm Brendan will affect Ireland tomorrow, Monday, 13th January bringing stormy conditions, heavy rain and high seas. Expect disruption to travel and possible localised flooding especially in coastal areas. There may also be some localised structural damage and trees uprooted.
Storm Brendan is currently off the east coast of Canada (991hPa), Figure 1, and is forecast to track eastwards across the Atlantic undergoing rapid cyclogenesis as it engages with a very strong Jet Stream. Rapid cyclogenesis is defined as a depression deepening 24hPa in 24-hours but Brendan is forecast to deepen by about 50hPa in 24-hours, Figure 2.
The following 6 images are from Met Éireann’s high resolution Harmonie forecast model. The images display the evolution of the forecast wind speeds as Storm Brendan approaches, crosses and clears away from Ireland.
The strongest winds will be initially along the west coast early on Monday morning before they spread countrywide during the morning affecting eastern counties around midday into the early afternoon. Disruption to travel and localised structural damage is possible as these winds affect the country.
During the afternoon a second core of extremely strong winds will affect parts of the west and northwest. Gusts are likely to exceed 130 km/h during the afternoon in exposed areas and along the coasts.
The National Directorate for Fire & Emergency Management Crisis Management Team have been in constant contact with Met Éireann regarding Storm Brendan, with the latest update received this morning.
Storm Brendan is expected to affect the West coast early Monday morning and then transfer across the country during the morning bringing stormy conditions and heavy and possibly intense rainfall countrywide with localised flooding possible. There is a significant risk to the Northwest, West and South coasts with an elevated risk for all Eastern coastal areas due to the high tidal situation and projected storm surge forecasted.
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We are also in a period of Spring Tides. Storm Brendan will produce significant storm surges and the combination of these high Spring Tides, onshore storm force winds and storm surge will lead to a risk of flooding along all coasts. There is a significant risk to the south, west and northwest coasts with an elevated risk for all eastern coastal areas due to the high tides and the projected storm surge forecast.
The final figure displays the projected significant wave height for Monday evening. Offshore wave heights of up to 14 metres are forecast with high or very high seas forecast along all coastal waters. Met Éireann has issued a Status Red Marine warning for winds reaching violent storm force 11 in the west.
STORM SURGE - WAVES
Heed the advice of the local authorities, the Gardaí and the HSE.
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