UPDATE THURSDAY 14TH JANAURY 2021

A good evening to everyone here is the latest update on the forecasting models for next week regarding any colder weather. There have been some change to the forecasting model in the last 24 hours with a very complex set up for next week.

colder weather is still showing on the forecast models but noting over the top and rather than having a cold spell of weather it could turn out to be cold snaps short lived.

NOTE

Before I start I would ask any media websites or pages using our information to not use this for sensational headlines or stating that a beast from the east is on the way as there is no clear signs of this at all. We don’t mind any media outlets sharing or work as long as credit is giving and our words are not twisted.

Latest weather model outputs today (Thursday 14th January 2021)

The 3 forecast models we will be looking at is the ECMWF, GFS, GEM

Below you can see the latest outputs from the 3 forecast models this evening

Charts attached show upper air temperatures at 850hPa which is the temperature at about 1.5 km which is generally above the atmospheric boundary layer. The 850 hPa temperature' is used to locate and identify warm fronts and cold fronts.

Todays forecasting models have showing a less colder start to next week but turning colder near the end of the week.

GFS

The latest GFS model attached below shows upper air temperatures above freezing for the Tuesday 19th of January 2021 as a area of low pressure sit across Ireland bring rain and windy weather across much of Ireland and the UK. Across Ulster and north Connacht upper air temperatures are just below Freezing but not low enough to give any falls of snow.

**warmer upper air temperatures for the 19th and 20th of Jan 2021**

**Wet and windy weather expected for many Tuesday and Wednesday**

As the area of low pressure clears to the east over mainland Europe on Wednesday into Thursday next week colder Arctic air is then dragged down from the north near the end of next week and over the next weekend. This can bee seen below on the animation attached.

The latest GFS output then shows a cold northerly airflow in place from late Thursday until the early days of the following week with heavy wintry showers feeding into Ulster and north Connacht but at this range in the forecast confidence is low.

One thing to look at with the GFS is how close the milder air is to the south of Ireland which add more uncertainty.

**As the low clears over Europe eastwards colder air is then circulated down from the north**

ECMWF

The two model runs from the ECMWF today this mornings 00z run and this evenings 12z run are much again the same this Thursday. The upper air temperatures are much the same also but a little further north next Tuesday with milder air over Ireland. As the area of low pressure clears to the east/northeast on late Tuesday and on Wednesday colder air is then dragged down from the north with a northwest to northerly airflow with upper temperatures of up to -5C not very cold but still cold enough to produce wintry showers across mainly the northern half of Ireland at the end of the week but again some uncertainty.

Warmer upper air temperatures on Tuesday 19th Jan 2021 across Ireland but this changes by Wednesday due to a area of low pressure dragging down colder air from the north as it clears to the east across mainland Europe

**As the area of low pressure clears to the east/northeast across Europe then on Wednesday the 20th of Jan 2021 colder air is dragged down from the north**

So Tuesday looks set to start of Mild with heavy rain on the ECMWF as a developing low clears eastwards overnight Tuesday and Wednesday next week unlike yesterdays run the risk of rain turning to snow on Wednesday has gone and is one of the reasons I have said forecasting any snow for particular time frames over 3 days out is pointless

Now below we will look at the warmer air mass at first when the low move across Ireland and how it become colder as the low clear to the east on Wednesday. Model run from the ECMWF attached below

GEM

The Gem model is much the same as the ECMWF and GFS model showing a mild sector in place on Tuesday with wind and the airflow turning northerly in direction bring down wintry showers from the north at the end of next week

Snowfall

No big dumping of snow looks possible next week especially a nationwide one. The highest chance of any wintry showers will be across the northern half of Ireland Ulster and north Connacht possibly later in the week and next weekend based on the latest model runs.

With milder air to the south and cold air to the north some weather fronts may move up from the south of Ireland out of the milder and moist air moving into the colder air turning rain wintry at times with this been the highest risk for many seen snowfall but no set up like this our showing at the moment. By the end of this week I will have a better idea of the outcome for next week moving into next weekend.

POSSIBLE OUTCOME NEXT WEEK

To start the week Monday 18th & Tuesday 19th Milder 4C to 8C. A area of low pressure then possibly moving across Ireland on Tuesday giving wet and windy weather but as it clears to the east across mainland Europe it then pulls down colder air from the north (Arctic air) with the increasing risk of some wintry falls of rain, sleet and snow with higher ground areas at the highest risk across the northern half of Ireland.

Towards the end of next week and over the next weekend turning a little colder but not significantly cold weather is expected. No beast from the east again I say no beast from the east.

I would not rule out a colder period during the month of February our a late end to winter moving into March with a delayed start to spring this year. No major cold looks possible at least now up until the end of January. The sudden stratospheric warming event which occurred last week in the stratosphere can sometimes have quick responses changing the pattern from westerly to more of a easterly pattern in the troposphere which is where nearly all weather conditions take place. A quick response would be in the timeframe of 2 weeks after the warming but sometimes delayed responses can occur and with minor warmings looking possible towards the end of January again we could well see the effects of that in February.

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Regards Kenneth

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