There has not been much change on the weather forecasting models today Tuesday with all weather models showing strong winds on Friday morning and afternoon with the risk of severe winds across western, northwestern and northern counties especially along coastal areas.

This time of year storms are more dangerous as trees are in full leaf and then to act like sails in high winds leading to a greater chance of trees falling or branches falling.

Tropical storm Arthur itself will not hit Ireland but instead it leads to the birth of another area of low pressure which is a rather deep area of low pressure for the time of year which forms in the mid Atlantic and moves northeast wards towards Ireland and the current model runs as it moving up across the western half of Ireland with strong winds on Friday morning and over the afternoon as the storm tracks northwards later in the afternoon and evening up across the west of Scotland.

TUESDAY UPDATE 19 MAY 2020

Below I have attached Tuesday mornings 00z run from the ECMWF model showing Tropical storm Arthur position of florida and how it leads to another area of deep low pressure forming and moving northeast towards Ireland.

**Tropical storm Arthur giving birth to a new storm with the new storm moving towards Ireland at the end of the week with strong winds across parts of the country**

The latest forecast from this morning models ECMWF, GFS, ICON, GEM and ARPEGE are all showing the same forecast taken the storm on the same path up the west of Ireland and then northwards up the west of Scotland. At this range in the forecast there is some good clarity on the forecast for Friday now

On Thursday night the storms center will move northeastwards and will be located out to sea of the southwest of Ireland, After midnight and on Friday morning the storms center will then track north and slightly to northeast up of the west of Ireland. At around midday Friday the storm will be of the northwest of Ireland and west of Scotland before clearing overnight to the north of Scotland.

This storm will more than likely be named by Met Eireann in the next 24 hours with the next name been called ELLEN.

Winds nationwide will be strong for a time on Friday morning and over the early afternoon with gusty southwesterly winds for many areas of between 80km/hr to 100km/hr.

Wind will be stronger over, western, northwestern and northern counties for a time on Friday morning especially across Donegal, Derry, Sligo, Leitrim, Mayo, Galway, Clare and Kerry where winds will gust between 100km/hr to 120km/hr and possibly as high as 130km/hr across exposed coastal areas along the Atlantic seaboard.

Inland areas across Connacht and Ulster wind could gust up to around 110km/hr to 120km/hr for a time but for most of the time gusts will between 80km/hr to 100km/hr.

weather warnings are likely to be issued as early as Wednesday and no later than Thursday morning with weather advisory possibly issued on later today or Wednesday morning.

Anyone with any lose items lying around the house like garden furniture, trampolines or bins should take them in or store them in a secure location. Also not as mentioned above there is a greater risk of trees falling this time of year due to trees in full leaf.

Kenneth from the Donegal Weather Channel