REMNANTS OF HURRICANE HELENE MAY HIT IRELAND AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY SECOND STORM
On the latest GFS mode run this morning we see the remnants of HURRICANE HELENE of the Coast of Africa and is currently a Category 1 Hurricane with maximum sustained wind speed of 80knts (90mph) (144kph) the hurricane is expected to move northwards over the next 24 hours and already peaked in intensity earlier Tuesday morning.
This forecast flow pattern will force Helene to turn more toward the north-northwest and north ahead of the trough for the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, the cyclone will recurve in the mid- latitude westerlies, and will begin to lose tropical characteristics at the very long ranges. Track models are in very good agreement with this solution.
Over the next 48 hours HURRICANE HELENE will no longer be a hurricane and become a post tropical depression as it moves into the colder waters of the mid Atlantic. At the start of next week or around midweek this then low pressure may reach Ireland with stormy conditions or it may miss altogether. The latest GFS model for example has the remnants HELENE passing Ireland and passing over the southwest of England. There will be many changes over the coming days before any forecast can be giving and here at Donegal Weather Channel as I mentioned on this mornings forecast I would keep you updated when details become much clearer.
The current forecast track of the remnants of hurricane Helene has shifted more westwards this morning on the latest model runs and takes a direct path over Ireland. Strongest wind gusts at present look set to be around 100km/hr to 120km/hr with the southern and southwestern coastal areas of Ireland seen the strongest of these with 7okm/hr to 100km/hr gust elsewhere. That is what the latest GFS model shows.
Further changes are likely over the rest of the week to the this forecast and track. The storm at the moment is not looking severe but changes are likely.
On Tuesday night another storm depression looks set to come close to the west coast of Ireland with stronger winds possible depending on how far east it comes towards Ireland changes are also likely to this system so it hard to say what will happen yet. One thing for sure is that next week is looking like a windy one to start.
Below I have attached image of the area of low pressure of the west Coast on Tuesday night into Wednesday.
I will update again over the coming days on early next week, and I would like to stress to people don’t get in a panic as there is no Hurricane hitting Ireland.or the UK.
Current Update on Hurricane Helene from the National Hurricane center
Earlier this morning, Helene looked quite ragged in IR imagery. The eye became poorly defined and cloud tops were steadily warming. However, beginning around 0500 UTC, a new burst of convection began wrapping around the previously open western portion of Helene's inner core. Objective and subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates range from 77 to 91 kt, and the initial intensity is therefore set at 80 kt as a blend of all of these data.
Despite the fact that Helene appears to be on the upswing at the moment, the cyclone is still passing over sub-26 deg C waters and all of the intensity guidance shows weakening for the next 24 h. Beyond that time, there is still some spread among the intensity models, though it has decreased since the last advisory. Helene will begin interacting with a mid-latitude trough over the north-central Atlantic, which will result in an increase in shear over the hurricane. However, Helene will also begin to move over warmer waters and could get some baroclinic support from the upper-level trough. Overall the intensity guidance is a little lower than before, and now the NHC intensity forecast is near the middle of the intensity guidance envelope.
Once again, no meaningful change has been made to the NHC track forecast which continues to closely follow the HFIP Corrected Consensus. Helene is moving north-northwestward, and should gradually turn northward, and eventually northeastward, as the cyclone is steered between a mid-level ridge to the east and the aforementioned mid-latitude trough to northwest. The global models remain in fairly good agreement on the track of Helene, especially through 72-96 h, when Helene is forecast to pass near the Azores, and interests in those islands should closely monitor the progress of Helene over the next several days.
Kenneth from the Donegal Weather Channel