A LOT OF DRIER WEATHER LOOKING LIKELY OVER THE END OF THE MONTH INTO NOVEMBER BUT COOLER
The trend through out the rest of this week is for mostly dry weather across Ireland but not totally dry. Today (Tuesday) will see a few heavy showers around over the morning and afternoon these heaviest across the west and north of the country, a few brighter and sunny spells could occur across the south and east over the day where they will be best but a few to in other areas between the showers. Overnight futher showers some heavy will occur across the west and north of the county with some drifting into the Midlands. Elsewhere will be dry with a mixture of cloud and some clear spells.
FROST ALERT WEDNESDAY NIGHT (WIDESPREAD ACROSS IRELAND)
On Wednesday day it will be mostly dry across Ireland with some nice sunny spells, over the morning and early afternoon the could be one or two isolated showers across some western and northwestern parts of Ireland. Top temperatures of 14C to 15C over the day.
On Wednesday I widespread grass frost will occur across Ireland as it turn much colder over night with temperatures dipping as low as -1C to 0C with highs of around 4C. Anyone on the early travel commute should be aware of potential icy patches that could occur on any wet road surfaces this should not be a big problem but I wouldn't rule it out as air and ground temperatures will be cold enough.
Thursday will be a rather nice day across Ireland and dry everywhere with good sunny spells and temperatures of 11C to 14C with light rain and drizzle across Connacht and western county's of Ulster overnight.
Friday will see further light rain and drizzle at times with a few brighter and sunny spell across parts of the southeast and East of Ireland.
The weekend looks mostly cloud across Ireland with scattered showers possible on both days rainfall amount very small this weekend and over this week in total with highest amounts across western and northwestern parts of Ireland amounts in total between 2mm to 10mm with highest values over western Connacht
The trend then shown on models heading in to next week into the 1st of November is for high pressure to building across Ireland with a very dry week currently showing. There also indicates that it could be a good sunny week but cool with temperatures but day in 8C to 14C.
Night time temperatures will also be cold with temperatures around -2C to 5C depending on night time conditions on some nights.
Both the GFS and ECMWF models show this pattern developing along with other models.
Looking at around of the month into the start of November the other interesting also comes to mine is tThe North Atlantic Oscillation. (NAO) The North Atlantic Oscillation is a weather phenomenon in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of atmospheric pressure at sea levels between the Icelandic low and the Azores high.
Through fluctuations in the strength of the Icelandic low and the Azores high, it controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and location of storm tracks across the North Atlantic. It is part of the Arctic Oscillation, and varies over time with no particular periodicity. The NAO is currently in a positive phase and currently forecast to go into a negative phase over the end of October into November which is a sign of colder conditions.
This NAO chart below 📊 shows the current NAO phase which is currently in a positive phase. Then at the end month shown on red at the end of the charts the NAO drops into a negative phase