TROPICAL STORM LESLIE UPDATE - WILL IT EFFECT IRELAND
Tropical storm Leslie at the moment does not look to be going anywhere to fast and is fairly stationary of the east coast of the Untied States of America at present.
Leslie's structure has evolved somewhat just within the past 6 hours.Deep convection has redeveloped near the low-level center, although it is displaced a bit to the north due to some southerly shear. The cyclone's circulation remains quite large, and earlier ASCAT data indicated that the radius of maximum winds is about 90-100 n mi away from the center. Since there is some inner-core convection again, the initial intensity remains 55 kt based on the ASCAT data.
A general northward motion should continue for the next 12-24 hours, but then Leslie will reach the mid-latitude westerlies and make an abrupt turn toward the east by 36 hours. After that time, Leslie is expected to make some significant eastward progress, although the global models are showing several shortwave troughs in the westerlies imparting a southeastward motion on Leslie by days 4 and 5.
The latest GFS model runs has Tropical storm Leslie missing Ireland at the end of next week with the Tropical storm moving easterly across the Atlantic and then southwards reaching the west coast of Africa before turning again moving east to west back across the tropical Atlantic but this is likely to change over the coming days. The strongest signals at present are for Tropical storm Leslie to move northward and get caught up in the jet stream.
The latest ECMWF model has Tropical storm Leslie reaching western Europe at the end of next week Friday.
Away from Tropical storm Leslie for the moment we look at another Atlantic storm depression ahead of Leslie on Thursday into Friday which could bring a spell of wet and very windy weather. It is to early to say just yet but both the GFS and ECMWF models are picking up on this depression and for me Tropical storm Leslie is not the system to be watching at this time but the other Atlantic depression ahead of it. Once more details and a better update can be giving on the end of next week I will update. It is way to early to say what will happen or determine paths.
Below I have attached the latest ECMWF model run shown tropical storm Leslie southwest of Portugal and Spain and a Atlantic depression of the west of Ireland which could lead to strong winds later next week.