WEEKEND WEATHER UPDATE - RISK OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY THUNDERY RAINFALL
This weekend is looking ever more likely to see a spell of wet and stormy condations over the country going by the latest model runs.
This time we look at the Met Eireann high resolution Harmonie model run which runs for time a day giving a more accurate forecast.
At Met Éireann they run both the Harmonie and HirlamNumerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. They model the atmosphere using the primitive equations of meteorology.
These models are currently run on supercomputers at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
The models produce forecast data for a wide variety of surface parameters such as wind, rain, temperature and precipitation. However, NWP models produce forecasts not only at ground level, but for pressure levels up to 30km. This data is then fed to the forecasters in the Forecast and Aviation Divisions in Met Éireann.
POSSIBLE STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS ON SUNDAY
The current outlook for the weekend is for a area of low pressure to travel west to east across Ireland and then on towards the UK on Sunday with the risk of strong winds and heavy rainfall depending on where the storm tracks across will depend on what sort of warnings is issued if needed.
Early Sunday morning we see the area of low pressure of the west coast of Ireland in the Atlantic with a central pressure of 999hPa. You can see this below
At present looking at the Met Eireann Harmonie model run the center of the low will first move into Galway/Clare deepening as it does so and at his stage have a central pressure of 993hPa. You can see this below
Later in the morning the storm tracks west to east with the center of the storm passing over the central county’s of Ireland intensifying as it does so. Going by this latest model run weather warning may be issued by Met Eireann for some parts of Ireland on Sunday. There is a risk looking at this latest model run that there will be some strong and damaging gusts again with the risk of power outages especially as it tracks across Ireland and continues to intensify. When we look at the Isobars on the above image and below you can see the isobars become tighter as the low passes and when you see this it means the stronger winds will be.
In the below image you can see the low then clears into the Irish sea with strong winds over the eastern half of Ireland as it does so. As this low passes over England and Wales it continues pressure continues to drop with strong winds likely there too.
HEAVY THUNDERY RAIN ALSO LIKELY
A spell of Heavy Thundery rain is also looking likely Saturday night into Sunday as the low approaches from the west. This could also bring the risk of spot and localized flooding across some parts of Ireland.
Saturday is looking like another wet day across Ireland with showery rain spreading from the south of the country over the morning. The northern half of Ireland looks as it will stay dry at least until the later afternoon and evening. Over night a spell of heavy and thundery rain the looks set to spread in from the Atlantic.
Weather warnings could be issued this weekend for wind and rain . This could be the third storm in one week to visit Ireland and the UK and may be a named one too going by the latest outlook from models. Next named storm will be named Callum.
A shift in the center of the low pressure southwards would keep the main winds out to sea or a shift northwards would bring more areas across Ireland at risk of seen strong winds.
I will have another update tomorrow when the path becomes much more clearer and a better forecast can be giving.
Kenneth from the Donegal Weather Channel