Over the last week in the media there is a lot of talk about a very cold winter going round with a lot of the media headlines stating that this winter is to be cold one. But we here this every year around this time of the year, so it the normal.

Every year its the same person who puts out the same story and when one outlet catches on to it another follows and adds there own bit to it.

Looking at the actual ECMWF seasonal model which has recently updated and released to the public the MSLP anomaly shows high pressure and blocking over Greenland, Iceland into Scandinavia shown on the chart above shown in Orange, Yellow and Red. To the south of Ireland and the UK it shows low pressure (shown in blue) and if that was the case then that would mean the Jet stream would also be well to the south of Ireland and the UK bringing the risk of wintry and cold conditions and a easterly set up. This is the seasonal forecast form the ECMWF from November to January with the seasonal forecast from January to March not shown much of a change but a more of a northerly flow.

Looking this far ahead its impossible to say what will happen and I would take this with a pinch of salt for now.

If we see the blocking shown on the MSLP anomaly chart anytime between November into the start of March then cold weather will be likely.

I am not a person to post about this far in advance but I just taught I would post this with all the talk going around to but peoples minds at ease.

When you look where Ireland is located in the world it can be hard to nail a forecast down 5 to 7 days ahead due the very active climate we have in the country especially when you have the wide open Atlantic at your door step compared to forecasting for some parts of the world where you could give 10 days in advance with little or no change .

Kenneth from the Donegal Weather Channel


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