MAY CONTINUES TO LOOK TO FINISH ON A WARMER AND DRIER NOTE
The two main weather models that I use for forecasting the GFS and ECMWF model continues to show may finishing on a much drier note and gradually becoming warmer.
The main thing I am watching for is the position of the jet stream and where it ends up. If it moves to the north of Ireland and gets pushed back towards Iceland then that would mean warmer temperatures and high pressure building fro mainland Europe or the Azores.
When the jet stream is positioned over Ireland then your talking about rather unsettled weather with areas of low pressure feeding in of the Atlantic like a conveyor belt.
If the jet stream moves to the south of Ireland you can get unsettled weather and sometimes settled weather to but cooler conditions with temperatures near average or below.
The Gfs long range forecast going into the last two weeks of May shows the month finishing on a drier note with high pressure the main feature with the jet stream also moving north over Ireland and the UK. That doesn't mean it will be fully dry but it would mean below average precipitation. Temperatures look like the will be in around the mid teen to high teens possible hitting the 20C mark on some days.
The ECMWF also shows high pressure in charge over Ireland and the UK but not a strong as signal as the GFS model currently showing.
Over all looking at the end of this month there is no signs of very warm temperatures but warmer temperatures than we have seen over the past few weeks when you take away that Bank holiday weekend which was decent.
Each week it is now a trend in the media for them to run a headline saying for a example "HOTTEST SUMMER IN 100 YEARS ON THE WAY" "JUNE, JULY & AUGUST SET TO BE A HEAT WAVE" These are click bait articles to draw you in, Some articles I have read and its the same thing over and over each week. Unless they show you evidence and a source to the information pay no attention.
My next update on the long range forecast will be in the middle of next week.
Enjoy your weekend folks and take it easy. I would also urge for people to watch the sky's today as there is a risk of thunderstorms. Please send on your snaps to the group page or message them to the Facebook page. When watching storms on radar in other areas its always good to see people snapping them and sending them on for me to review.