LONG RANGE FORECAST OUT LOOK END OF JULY & THE START OF AUGUST
This weekend will see a weak westerly flow across Ireland with scattered showers and drizzle at times but some good dry weather to at times especially across the south and east of Ireland.
It will turn warmer again and humid across parts of Leinster and Munster on Sunday with temperatures getting as high as 24C to 25C but staying cooler and fresher over Connacht and Ulster due to that westerly flow. The reason for warmer conditions over the south and east is due to a ridge of High pressure building again over the country.
Early next week that ridge of high pressure diffs of back to the east over Mainland Europe allowing a weather front to move down from the northwest.
next week will be unsettled and cooler across Ireland with temperatures back in the high teens for many with the ongoing risk of a few thunderstorm looking possible at this stage. But this is a long way of yet in forecasting terms.
The weather for the rest of July is looking unsettled with the Atlantic now trying to get a bit of momentum going driving in areas of low pressure. For so long it couldn't manage to do so due to areas of high pressure blocking this from happening .
When we look at where the Jet stream is shown to be at the end of this month is also a big indications that the weather will turn more unsettled. You can see the jet stream location at the end of this month below.
The long range forecast from the ECMWF model for the start of August suggest these sort of conditions to continue with high pressure close by but looking at the CFS anomaly today it shows a big change over the first half of August with a area of low pressure (below average heights) which would lead to a lot cooler weather and very unsettled and windy at times. Its early days yet to say if this will be indeed the case for the start of August but if the CFS is right it would mean a very dramatic change in the weather for August.
Eventually the high pressure will have to break down with Ireland and the UK stuck in this pattern now since May.
Kenneth from the Donegal Weather Channel