STAYING WARM AND DRY FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS ACROSS IRELAND BUT THERE ARE SIGNS OF CHANGE
So the big question at the moment how long this warm and dry weather is going to last some people love and some don't. The people taken the biggest hit in this weather is the farmers is due to the lack of Precipitation.
On June 21st, an area of high pressure of up to 1035 hPa began to build across Ireland leading to very warm and dry conditions to end the month and into the start of July to present.
This spell of weather also also followed a warm and dry May also in one of the best period of weather Ireland has seen in a number of years.
Below shows a chart of how many days weather stations across Ireland have gone with out seen rainfall.
Definitions: An absolute drought is a period of 15 or more consecutive days to none of which is credited 0.2 mm or more of precipitation (i.e. daily rainfall < 0.2 mm.)
A partial drought is a period of at least 29 consecutive days the mean daily rainfall of which does not exceed 0.2 mm (i.e. mean for period <= 0.2 mm.)
A dry spell is a period of 15 or more consecutive days to none of which is credited 1.0 mm or more of precipitation (i.e. daily rainfall < 1.0 mm.)
Over the weekend another area of High pressure will build over Ireland with nice warm and sunny conditions. below you can see the Pressure chart showing the strong area of high pressure again building with the center of the south west coast of Ireland.
By the start of next week the center of this high pressure will then bee centered to the north of Ireland allowing warm easterly airflow next week. On the chart below this can bee seen. If you also look at the chart below you will notice a area of low pressure or thundery low of the west coast of France in the bay of Biscay.
Temperatures over the weekend and next week will get back up into the mid to high twenties but also low twenties along some coastal areas due to a onshore breeze. It will feel warm everywhere in any sunshine over the weekend and next week
There are possible hints that the weather may start to break down over the end of next weekend and into the following week with with the a out break of thunderstorm over parts of Ireland these severe in places. The would indeed mean rainfall finally but the biggest risk if we do get a thundery break down is the shower we could get. Downpours could lead to flash flooding especially if the ground is so hard. Ireland would need now about a weeks worth of rain for drought conditions to become less severe something many will not want here but what the country actually needs.
If this does indeed happen then we will start to see weather fronts roll in of the Atlantic as the jet stream drops back southwards over Ireland and the uk with cooler conditions and rainfall.
HOSE PIPE BAN NOW IN PLACE NATIONWIDE UNTIL 31 JULY 2018
What is prohibited during the hosepipe ban?
Watering a garden
- Cleaning a private motor-vehicle using a domestic hosepipe
- Cleaning a private leisure boat using a hosepipe
- Filling or maintaining a domestic swimming or paddling pool (except when using hand-held containers filled directly from a tap)
- Filling or maintaining a domestic pond (excluding fish ponds) using a hosepipe
- Filling or maintaining an ornamental fountain (with the exception of such use for commercial purposes)
- Use of water for filling or replenishing an artificial pond (excluding fish ponds), lake or similar application
- Anyone caught breaking the ban will get a €120 fine.
Below shows the precipitation forecast by the ECMWF model over the coming 8 to 10 days across Ireland shown very little to no rain.
RED WARNING Effective From 0900hrs 06/07/2018 Effective Period Expires 1200hrs 11/07/2018 Arising from the effects of prolonged high pressure weather systems, high temperatures and Drought conditions, an extreme fire risk is deemed to exist in all areas where hazardous fuels exist. This risk is further compounded by high ignitions risks associated with increased human activities on all high risk land types during the current fine weather spell.
DAFM advise at this point that all outdoor use of fires, barbeques and other open ignition sources be avoided on forest lands, public amenities and in other high risk areas until further notice. Extreme caution is again advised with respect to hay making and the use of machinery and other agricultural activity that may also present a risk of fire in dry vegetation in current conditions. There appears to be a strong correlation between fire activity and illegal dumping and other activities on public lands in recent days and increased vigilance by land managers and landowners is advised. It is illegal to burn growing vegetation on uncultivated land between March 1 st and August 31st . Pending a significant change in meteorological conditions this risk condition will remain in place until 1200hrs on Wednesday, July 11th, 2018, and will be reviewed again at that point.
Under extreme Fire Risk Conditions any ignition source in hazardous fuels may give rise to rapid and unpredictable wildfire development and spread, particularly in dead grasses, and in shrub fuels like gorse and heather. Under these conditions, upland fires can be expected to cover extensive areas and pose extreme difficulties to suppression efforts and may potentially give rise to Major Emergency scenarios.
The issue of Condition Red Extreme fire risk warnings is a comparatively rare event and implies that recipients should take immediate action to protect resources and property. Such action may involve the mobilisation, assembly and prepositioning of resources such as water tankers, machinery, personnel and air support in high risk areas.
Contracted Air Support should now be notified for immediate readiness when required.
Preliminary notification of Aid to Civil Power / Aid to Civil Authority requests by relevant authorities may also be warranted where extreme conditions are deemed likely to exist, and where emergency response requirements may be likely to exceed the capabilities of Civil Authorities.
Forest owners / managers, other land managers, landowners and local authorities should implement fire patrols to exclude all fire activity from the landscape and enforce relevant fire protection legislation for the duration of this notice.
Rural residents should also implement a high degree of vigilance, and check on elderly or other vulnerable neighbours and assist with preparation and reassurance, and evacuation if this is deemed necessary by the Local Authorities.
Advice to the General Public/Forest Visitors
Members of the public and visitors to recreational areas should cooperate with all requests regarding fire safety, obey all relevant bye-laws and be considerate in parking vehicles so as not to impede access by emergency vehicles.
Where fire outbreaks occur at or near recreational areas the following actions should be taken by visitors in the interests of safety.
- Do not light fires in and around forests or open land.
- Do not attempt to intervene or fight fires under any circumstances.
- Gather all family/group members and move to a safe fuel-free location such as a car park, upwind of the fire.
- Telephone Fire and Rescue Services via 112 and report the fire and its location.
- Evacuate if instructed to do so, and cooperate with all Emergency Service Instructions.
Further information on fire management and wildfire protection is available at http://www.agriculture.gov.ie/forestservice/firemanagement/
BE PREPARED. BE VIGILANT. STAMP OUT FOREST FIRES.
Kenneth from the Donegal Weather Channel
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