IRELAND LOOKS SET NOW TO SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 30S AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK
The weather over the next 10 days now looks to stay warm and settled with temperature becoming hotter again over the weekend and into the 30s at the start of next week. Looking at the latest ECMWF and GFS 500mbr 12z height Anomaly Charts it shows a Omega block setting in over Ireland which is a Blocking high pressure which is not easily moved.
An omega block is an extreme version of a “blocking high”, an area of high pressure which remains stationary for a prolonged period. It gets its name from the way that the jet stream bends around the high and the lows on either side of it, forming a shape resembling the Greek letter omega Ω
Blocks in meteorology are large-scale patterns in the atmospheric pressure field that are nearly stationary, effectively “blocking” or redirecting migratory cyclones. They are also known as blocking highs or blocking anticyclones.
Below I have attached the ECMWF and GFS 10 day 500mbr 12z height Anomaly Charts showing this.
Below attached shows the jet stream well above Ireland over Iceland next week and to the south where a area of low pressure sit with the omega block centered over Ireland and the UK.
Temperatures over the weekend are set to become hot again with temperatures into the high twenties on Saturday and Sunday and back up into the low 30s by the start of next week with a tropical continental airflow.
Below I have attached the chart showing the strong area of Higher pressure and omega block over Ireland, the UK and northwest Europe showing the source of that tropical airflow from mainland Europe.
The latest 10 day Temperature Anomalies for Europe shown below shows much more hotter than average temperatures across Ireland and the UK and most northern parts of Europe.
PRECIPITATION FORECAST - drought CONDITIONS
The latest precipitation forecast from the ECMWF shows little or no rain over Ireland between now and Thursday the 12th of July 2018 which will lead to Irish water issuing further hosepipe bans around Ireland over the coming days. No rainfall has been recorded at 24 of its 25 weather stations for the past 12 days.
Around the country 39 water supplies are being restricted at night time and another 130 are at risk due to high levels of consumption.
Irish Water has said it is tankering water from larger schemes to top up reservoirs where levels are falling and trying to protect borderline supplies to homes and businesses.
However it warned that this work is becoming more challenging as the drought spreads nationally.
Looking at the long term forecast current indications suggest week 3 of July on Anomalies charts is for above average heights above Ireland and the UK with the warm and dry weather continuing before the above average height drifts eastwards over central Europe and turning more unsettled and cooler again with the jest stream moving south again over the last week of July.
What is prohibited during the hosepipe ban?
- Watering a garden
- Cleaning a private motor-vehicle using a domestic hosepipe
- Cleaning a private leisure boat using a hosepipe
- Filling or maintaining a domestic swimming or paddling pool (except when using hand-held containers filled directly from a tap)
- Filling or maintaining a domestic pond (excluding fish ponds) using a hosepipe
- Filling or maintaining an ornamental fountain (with the exception of such use for commercial purposes)
- Use of water for filling or replenishing an artificial pond (excluding fish ponds), lake or similar application
The latest 10 day Precipitation Anomalies for Europe shown below shows well below average Precipitation across Ireland and the UK, Northwest Europe and most of Spain meanwhile in France and northern Spain there will be above average rainfall.
The department of agriculture currently have a RED WARNING for fires in place arising from current prolonged high pressure weather patterns, high temperatures and effective drought conditions, an extreme fire risk is deemed to exist in all areas where hazardous fuels exist. This risk is further compounded by higher ignitions risks associated with increased human activity on high fire risk land types associated with current weather.
DAFM advise at this point that all outdoor use of fires, barbeques and other open ignition sources be avoided on forest lands and in other high risk areas until further notice. Extreme caution is again advised with respect to hay making and the use of machinery and other agricultural activity that may also present a risk of fire in dry vegetation in current conditions. There appears to be a strong correlation between fire activity and illegal dumping and other illegal activities on public lands in recent days and an increased vigilance by land managers and landowners is advised. Pending a significant change in meteorological conditions this risk condition will remain in place until 1200hrs on Friday, July 6th, 2018, and will be reviewed again at that point.
Under extreme Fire Risk Conditions any ignition source in hazardous fuels may give rise to rapid and unpredictable wildfire development and spread, particularly in dead grasses, and in shrub fuels like gorse and heather. Under these conditions, upland fires can be expected to cover extensive areas and pose extreme difficulties to suppression efforts and may potentially give rise to Major Emergency scenarios. The issue of Condition Red Extreme fire risk warnings is a comparatively rare event and implies that recipients should take immediate action to protect resources and property. Such action may involve the mobilization, assembly and propositioning of resources such as water tankers, machinery, personnel and air support in high risk areas. Contracted Air Support should now be notified for immediate readiness when required. Preliminary notification of Aid to Civil Power / Aid to Civil Authority requests by relevant authorities may also be warranted where extreme conditions are deemed likely to exist, and where emergency response requirements may be likely to exceed the capabilities of Civil Authorities. Forest owners / managers, other land managers, landowners and local authorities should implement fire patrols to exclude all fire activity from the landscape and enforce relevant fire protection legislation for the duration of this notice. Rural residents should also implement a high degree of vigilance, and check on elderly or other vulnerable neighbours and assist with preparation and reassurance, and evacuation if this is deemed necessary by the Local Authorities.
Advice to the General Public/Forest Visitors Members of the public and visitors to recreational areas should cooperate with all requests regarding fire safety, obey all relevant bye-laws and be considerate in parking vehicles so as not to impede access by emergency vehicles. Where fire outbreaks occur at or near recreational areas the following actions should be taken by visitors in the interests of safety. 1. Do not light fires in and around forests or open land. 2. Do not attempt to intervene or fight fires under any circumstances. 3. Gather all family/group members and move to a safe fuel-free location such as a car park, upwind of the fire. 4. Telephone Fire and Rescue Services via 112 and report the fire and its location. 5. Evacuate if instructed to do so, and cooperate with all Emergency Service Instructions.
Further information on fire management and wildfire protection is available at http://www.agriculture.gov.ie/forestservice/firemanagement/
BE PREPARED. BE VIGILANT. STAMP OUT FOREST FIRES.
Kenneth from the Donegal Weather Channel
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