HEATWAVE NOW POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN IRELAND AND THE UK POSSIBLY HITTING 30°C
The GFS and ECMWF model are now showing the possibility of a heatwave next week over Ireland and the UK with temperatures in the high twenties and possibly even as high as 30°C.
I have been updating now on this warm spell for the last week of June for the past 8 days and everyday the model runs are showing very strong signals that very warm air will be in place by the start of next week with temperatures reaching the high twenties and possibly even as high as 30°C locally in some parts by the end of next week.
As I was saying over the week that the jet stream is set to move well north again with warmer air been pumped up over Ireland at the weekend and even warmer conditions at the end of the month.
On Monday and today the weather models have really latched on to this now with some real hot weather shown and with the warm weather of recent this is the first real significant show of hot weather for summer 2018 yet.
After today Tuesday there is no real sign of rainfall in the forecast for the next 10 days. So rainfall amounts will be well below average for the rest of the month.
If we look at the trend with the weather since April we have seen a number of long warmer & drier periods followed by a brief unsettled spells with warmer spells then reloading again. Since February we have also seen plenty of easterly flows which bring colder weather during the winter and early spring and warmer air in late spring and over the summer months.
Below I have attached the Precipitation Anomalies for Europe shown well below average and very dry weather between now and the end of the month after today's rain passes. Ireland, the UK and France all look well below average as well as Belgium, Switzerland and Germany.
Temperatures over the weekend will be in the high teens to low twenties across Ireland and mid to high teens across England, Scotland and Wales were it will be a little cooler due to a northwesterly air flow.
Now we will look at the start of next week and where the ridge of High pressure sits over the UK and mainland Europe. This will feed in a very warm southeast winds with temperatures climbing into the mid twenties.
Over the middle and end of the week then we have that ridge of strong high pressure centered just of to the east Ireland and the UK and this is when we start to see the highest temperatures. with really hot air been pumped in from the southeast over the period.
Then around the first of July we still have very warm air over Ireland and the UK with the risk of possible thunderstorms due a area of low pressure forming of the west of France trying to move northwards. This can be seen below
That is from the GFS model and what it shows over the next 10 days and the most interesting thing about this pattern that is developing it looks like it will last into the start of July as well with warm air and high pressure reestablishing itself with warm south easterly flow. Maybe not as hot as the end of next week but temperatures well up in the twenties.
Below you can see the temperatures that the ECMWF model is projecting for the middle and end of next week with temperatures in the high twenties and possibility as high as 30°C in parts by the time we head into next weekend
That's it for this update folks I will update on this spell of warmer conditions over the week and keep you updated with the latest happenings.
Kenneth from the Donegal Weather Channel.
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