JUNE SET TO FINISH WARM WITH TEMPERATURES BACK UP IN THE MID 20s


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So 6 days ago I posted a update talking about there was signals that the end of June would turn warmer again especially over the last week of June and looking at both the ECMWF model and the GFS model that does look the case at moment with conditions looking warmer and drier again. 

MONDAY AND TUESDAY

Over next week we will see mixed conditions up till at least Wednesday with showers over Ireland on Monday but then a heavier band of rain will move in from the west as weather front moves of the Atlantic around midday Tuesday with the heaviest rain across Ulster and Connacht, Later in the night this will clear western parts and clear everywhere by breakfast time Wednesday morning. Rain will be rather light over most parts of Leinster and Munster with some areas in the far south and southeast seen little to know rain as the front dies out.  I have Attached the rainfall forecast charts below from the GFS model.

 

precipitation chart for 3pm Tuesday

precipitation chart for 3pm Tuesday

precipitation chart for 6pm Tuesday

precipitation chart for 6pm Tuesday

precipitation chart for 9pm Tuesday    

precipitation chart for 9pm Tuesday
 

precipitation chart for 12am Wednesday   

precipitation chart for 12am Wednesday
 

Continures below

WEDNESDAY

Wednesday when that rain clears over the morning it will become a lot drier with only the risk of the odd light shower over the early afternoon. Over the day there will be a lot of cloud around but some bight and sunny spells will also develop in places. Temperatures will range between 14C to 17C over the day.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY

Thursday and Friday look both to be dry days across Ireland with some nice bright and sunny spells around too. Temperatures will range between 15C to 19C. It will be a little cooler due to light northwesterly winds keep temperatures down.

WEEKEND

Over the weekend Saturday and Sunday look set to be another 2 dry days with some cloud but good spells of Sunshine around to. Temperatures at the weekend will also improve back up into the high teen to low twenties.

FOLLOWING WEEK

The last week of June is where the weather looks set to turn even warmer with temperatures over the week into the low to mid twenties again as warm air moves up from the south.

JET STREAM

When we look at the jet stream at present and where it is located it is right over Ireland and then over the last week of June it moves northwards which would allow that warmer weather to develop. Attached below is the current jet stream position and where it looks set to be sitting during the last week of the month.     

current jet stream position

current jet stream position

jet stream position over the last week of June   

jet stream position over the last week of June
 

HIGH PRESSURE

At the end of next week as high pressure builds and temperatures only stay around the mid to high teens this is due to northwesterly wind which will be light. I have marked out below with a arrow showing this but there will be good dry weather around.

High pressure building at the end of the week with  northwesterly wind keeping things cooler

High pressure building at the end of the week with  northwesterly wind keeping things cooler

The GFS then shows high pressure from the AZORES building over Ireland with warmer air been fed in. The ECMWF also shows a ridge of high pressure building over Ireland and the UK with warmer weather into that final week. Charts attached below.

This is a very good sign to see both models showing this even at this stage which suggests now something is around the corner. 

GFS model showing high pressure building over Ireland

GFS model showing high pressure building over Ireland

ECMWF modeling showing high pressure also building

ECMWF modeling showing high pressure also building

If anything at the moment the ECMWF is looking like the warmest model run.

Below I have also attached beside each other is the anticyclonic high pressure around the 27th of June across Ireland and the UK and then the position of the jet stream showing how it gets pushed northwards.

anticyclonic high pressure

anticyclonic high pressure

Jet steam forecast

Jet steam forecast

That's it for this update folks I will update on this possible spell of warmer conditions over the week and keep you updated with the latest happenings.

Kenneth from the Donegal Weather Channel.

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